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　ON DECEMBER 6th the largest storm surge since1953 hit Britain's coasts, flooding 1,400 houses. The fact that only two people died—comparedwith 326 in the earlier storm—is testament to the tidal barriers built in Britain over the past fewdecades. Yet the system that created many of those sea defences, and encouraged people tokeep living in flood-prone areas, is being abandoned.

　　12月6日，英國(guó)沿海地區(qū)遭遇自1953年以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的暴風(fēng)雨，有1400間民居受災(zāi)，兩人死亡。和1953年死亡326人的情況相比，這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難人員傷亡大大減少。原因是，在過(guò)去幾十年里，英國(guó)修建了大量的防波堤。盡管之前政府修建了許多海防工事并鼓勵(lì)人們住在洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的，目前這一計(jì)劃正面臨著擱淺的命運(yùn)。

　　Since the 1960s the government has paid to build flood defences while insisting that insurerscover most properties in flood-prone areas. This arrangement has gradually become acasualty of austerity and climate change. Spending on flood defences fell from629m ($972m)to 510m between 2010 and 2012. Simply repairing existing defences would cost 1 billion peryear by 2035. New flood defences will be subject to a rigorous cost-benefit analysis, withmore land in effect surrendered to the sea. The last agreement with the insurance industrycame to an end this July.

　　自從20世紀(jì)60年代以來(lái)，英國(guó)政府就出資修建海防工事，并宣稱住在洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的承包人的保險(xiǎn)可覆蓋大部分財(cái)產(chǎn)。這一政策調(diào)整逐漸成為通貨緊縮和氣候變化的犧牲品。從2010年到2012年，用于海防工事的投資從六億兩千九百萬(wàn)英鎊(九億七千兩百萬(wàn)美元)降到了五億一千萬(wàn)英鎊。到2035年，每年僅檢修目前的海防工事就要耗資10億英鎊。新的海防工事將納入嚴(yán)格的成本效益分析，涉及更大范圍的沿海地區(qū)。今年六月，英國(guó)政府與保險(xiǎn)業(yè)簽訂的上一個(gè)協(xié)議落下了帷幕。

　　In place of the old system, the government has proposed shifting the costs of flooding ontohomeowners. All households taking out insurance will now pay a 10.50 levy to Flood Re, anot-for-profit fund, to subsidise premiums for 500,000 houses in flood-prone areas.

　　新的保險(xiǎn)系統(tǒng)下，政府提出將洪災(zāi)的費(fèi)用加到房主的身上。參與洪水保險(xiǎn)的家庭現(xiàn)在要向洪水再次保險(xiǎn)(一個(gè)非盈利性的基金會(huì))繳納10.5英鎊的稅款，以幫助修復(fù)那些位于洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的500,000間房屋。

　　The new scheme is patchy. Whereas the old agreement covered all properties with no worsethan a 1-in-75 annual risk of flooding, the new scheme will exclude many. Houses in the topcouncil-tax band and businesses will not be allowed to join the scheme. Houses built since2009 will also not be covered (28,000 were planned to be built on floodplains in 2011 alone). Ifproperties flood too often they will be thrown out of the scheme. MPs in flood-prone placessuch as Hull are not happy.

　　新的洪水保險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃條款很瑣碎。舊保險(xiǎn)系統(tǒng)覆蓋了1到79項(xiàng)洪災(zāi)嚴(yán)重性的情況下所有財(cái)產(chǎn)的保險(xiǎn)，而新保險(xiǎn)系統(tǒng)則刪除了很多受災(zāi)情況。繳納最高家庭稅的房子和公司不能加入這一保險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃，也不包括建于2009年后的房子(僅2011年在泛濫平原區(qū)就計(jì)劃修建了28000間房子)。如果涉及洪水的財(cái)產(chǎn)太多，政府將擱置這一計(jì)劃。來(lái)自洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)的國(guó)會(huì)議員，如赫爾，對(duì)此非常不滿。

　　Worse, Flood Re's sums do not yet add up. One government study suggested that the fundhas a 58% chance of running out of money in the initial 20 years the scheme is to run for.Some fear that the state may find itself spending some of the money saved by building fewerdefences on topping the scheme up.

　　更糟糕的是，還未合計(jì)洪水再保險(xiǎn)的資金總額。一項(xiàng)政府調(diào)查說(shuō)，該基金有58%的概率已經(jīng)花完了該計(jì)劃前20年的資金。有些人擔(dān)心政府會(huì)為了省錢而減少海防工事的修建量，從而堵上該計(jì)劃的資金漏洞。

　　The housing market seems already to be pricing in higher risk. Between 2008 and 2012property prices rose in four out of the five Lincolnshire postcodes with the lowest flood risk.They fell in four out of the five areas of highest risk (see chart). This may have some goodeffects. Forcing homeowners to shoulder more of the costs of flooding should encouragethem to invest in precautions and discourage builders from erecting houses in risky areas. Butin the meantime, in low-lying parts of Britain, wellington boots and sandbags may make wiserinvestments than houses.

　　房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的房?jī)r(jià)似乎面臨著更大的危險(xiǎn)。從2008年到2012年，由于少有洪水災(zāi)害，林肯郡的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)漲了80%。由于日前洪災(zāi)的巨大威脅，房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)降了80%。這可能會(huì)起到一些積極的作用。迫使房主承擔(dān)更多的洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可促使他們謹(jǐn)慎投資，避免建筑商重建危險(xiǎn)地帶的房屋。然而，在同一時(shí)間，在英國(guó)低洼地區(qū)，與房地產(chǎn)投資比起來(lái)，投資長(zhǎng)筒防水靴和沙包是更為明智的選擇。